Makis Speaks

Buffer Zone Bloggers Weekend 29-30 April

2011-04-13T07:39:00.000-07:00

The project aims to provide the digital community of Cyprus (bloggers, journalists, photographers, film-makers, etc) the opportunity to come in contact, exchange ideas, share experiences and get in touch with the radical changes taking place in the digital world.

Register here.

Launch of the CCMC website

2010-09-03T02:48:00.001-07:00

The Cyprus Community Media Centre has launched its impressive website. It has been in the pipeline for some time, but it is well worth the wait.

Check it out - http://www.cypruscommunitymedia.org/

The Problem of Attendance

2010-06-26T09:28:00.000-07:00

It is a question that has been asked repeatedly over the last few months, but it remains an issue that has yet to be addressed by civil society activists in Cyprus - how to increase awareness of the activities being organised and, consequently, how to get the numbers up in terms of attendance?

Over the last three days I attended three very interesting sessions organised by the Cyprus branch of the International Centre for Transitional Justice. Guest speaker Alice McCartney, Arts Regeneration Officer of Derry City Council, and a member of the Healing Through Remembering sub-group of the Living Memorial Museum, gave an insight into the legacy of the Northern Ireland conflict, and presented some of the work being done to promote the arts as a method of dealing with a violent past. Despite the novelty and relevance of such work for Cyprus, the attendance could at best be described as modest.

In 2005 a report funded by the UN Development Programme concluded that civil society capacity in Cyprus was low, and its ability to reach out to the wider population was one of the areas of concern. Civil society activists working within the Cypriot context are becoming increasingly aware that, despite the quality of their work, they are 'preaching to the converted' i.e. the interest comes from those already working within the field. In addition to this, the venue for these events - in most cases the buffer zone in central Nicosia - points to an overwhelming focus on the capital, with precious little organised in other urban centres or rural areas.

Why the lack of interest? There can be no doubt that disappointment over the diachronic failure of negotiations to settle the Cyprus Problem is contributing and exacerbating a general apathy towards the work of civil society. Funding mechanisms in place necessarily favour organisations with experience in handling external moneys. External funding has also had its fair share of bad press in both communities. During the presidency of Tassos Papadopoulos, statements by public officials, given excessive coverage by the media, led to a widely-held belief that USAid funds were purposefully directed towards the promotion of the Annan Plan. In the north, a recent draft law has been prepared, aimed at curbing the activities of civil society, which would give the authorities unprecedented (and anti-democratic) involvement in the operations of NGOs.

The remedy is not easily discernible, but the situation calls for a collective introspection of the strategies employed in the promotion of the work being done in a variety of fields. Civil society is so much more than just human rights, although a lot of the work centres around this theme. In addition to this, the dominance of political parties in the major debates in Cypriot society continues to stifle the voice of civil society organisations. In this regard, I believe that forging stronger and lasting relationships with the media in Cyprus is a major avenue that should be explored. Their (the media) longevity within society, and their ability to reach people from all walks of life must be utilised in order to move beyond the select circle of people working within the field. To build this relationship, both activists and donors should exercise as much diplomacy as is necessary to bring the media on their side. An alliance between the media and civil society would go some way to countering the problem of attendance, increasing the ownership of external funding beyond the specific projects they support.

Martin Packard, George Ball and the partition of Cyprus

2009-10-02T05:06:00.000-07:00

Costas Gennaris' interview with Martin Packard, ex-British Navy official assigned to Cyprus in 1964, is as illuminating as it is tragic. As with everything that is said about Cyprus, 'a pinch of salt' can do no harm. But his recounting of the tragic years of 1963-64 expose what is now the worst kept secret of the Cold War, that the British and US governments played an instrumental role in the breakdown of the Republic in the years leading up to 1974.

Here is Packard's story.

An example to all

2009-06-26T13:13:00.000-07:00

Grief, sadness, relief, pride... the outpouring of emotion caused by the death of Michael Jackson is truly astonishing. A man hidden from the world for close to 3 years; a man whose reputation was tarnished by allegations of child molestation; subsequently despised even by people who once worshiped this true pioneer of music. But on the day when he paid the ultimate price for a life in the spotlight, the world unites in reflection on the life of the man whose music inspired the world. How many people would merit impromptu shrines across the globe, sobbing fans singing the lyrics to age old classics, swaying from side to side and coming to terms with the loss of the King of Pop.

Throughout the day I, for one, have realised just how out of touch I have become with music, and the emotions that the boogie can provoke. It is just a shame that it has taken his sudden passing for me to reconnect with my musical upbringing, a time dominated by classics such as Thriller, Bad, and Billie Jean. I'm still whispering the chorus to 'Blame it on the Boogie'.

Perhaps his death will also serve as a timely reminder, and a time of reflection, on our ability to worship one moment and revile the next. How fickle the human race can be. From moonwalker to walking a tightrope, from child icon to child mollester, from the greatest entertainer to the biggest joke around.

The cliche goes that music stars sell more records once they have passed away. Given the current state of the music market, that is unlikely to happen in the case of Michael Jackson. But sales will not determine his legacy; his pure musical genius will.

Having my say

2009-01-27T05:16:00.000-08:00

The season is really hotting up, isn't it? Transfers left, right and centre, managerial outbursts, players being 'tapped-up' (as if they really need the tap), and a season of promise that is petering out rapidly for Liverpool. Well, at least that is what you would be led to believe by the pundits - I haven't anything that Andy Gray has said, but then again, I think I know what rubbish he'll be spouting out.

Facts - Liverpool are second in the league, level on points with Man Utd, who have a game in hand. Realistically therefore, 3 points behind Utd. In other words, the next three league games are must-win games. Don't forget Chelski are two points behind, and Villa (4 beefy defenders (6-foot plus with a head and rugby kicking training), non-existent midfield, hoof-it-up-to-the-speedy-gonzalez-boys-to-run-clear-and-hope-they-score) 3 points behind.

Liverpool's form has dipped over the last three games, comparing it to the two victories over Xmas against Bolton and Newcastle. Comparing it to the rest of the season, it's pretty much the same. Except the luck needed sometimes to break down defensively-minded teams has disappeared (Wigan, Man City: not defensive, just crap, Atletico Madrid: at home). And that is down to the fact that Liverpool lack versatility. It's not down to 'Rafa's rant' at Ferguson, it's not down to 'Moyes' putdown', it's not down to a lack of good players. Lack of versatility - the ability players have to adapt to changing formations, and patrolling areas they are unfamiliar with. And that is Rafa's fault. Pre-season training should be about drilling into your players the tactics required to shift the emphasis from defence to attack and vice versa when required. And that, I hate to admit, is Utd's strength - players can switch positions comfortably and change emphasis if and when that is required.

And one more thing; they need better full-backs, because the full-backs are the players who can give the team width and an extra dimension if and when required (Evra, Clichy, Sagna, Ramos, Cafu, Ashley Cole?).

Who's War?

2008-12-30T07:33:00.000-08:00

Jeremy Bowen, BBC

"Now that Israel and Hamas are in what the Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak called "war to the bitter end" let's look at some of their options.

First of all, is it really a war to the bitter end?

It might be, and it might get a lot worse. Once a war starts, it is not easy to control.

But it is a fair guess that they will fight until there is some sort of diplomatic intervention that both sides can accept, or at least be in no position to refuse."

So tell me Jeremy, who fights this war you speak of? And who will fight until they have created a favourable 'stalemate' which will necessitate 'some sort of international diplomatic intervention'? And what will that diplomatic intervention achieve? Peace? A ceasefire? Another pathetic, pointless Security Council resolution 'calling on all parties to end hostilities? Oh, wait a minute, that already happened... That's how insignificant the UN and the 'international community' has become.

The Palestinians of Gaza are not engaged in a war with anyone. They are suffering under the weight of an occupation whose iron grip has been tightening since that most 'bold' of decisions by Ariel Sharon to pull out of all illegal settlements in the Gaza Strip. Everywhere you turn you hear about crimes against humanity - Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Karadzic... The world continues to watch idly as criminal acts continue to strangle the Gazan Palestinians. The Israeli government is pushing them to relinquish what has now become their only voice, their only outlet - Hamas. Yet they will cling to Hamas, and the conflict will perpetuate.

Israeli aggression has even turned against those who wish to alleviate the suffering of Gaza. 'Dignity', the vessel carrying humanitarian and medical aid and volunteers from the ‘Volunteer Doctors – Cyprus’ organisation, was hit by the Israeli navy in an attempt to deter them from ferrying aid to Gaza.

Let us hope that deterrence of this nature will not stop those who have acted to help the plight of the Palestinians.

So Jeremy, who did you say was at war?

Incremental Unilateralism

2008-10-14T01:51:00.000-07:00

There is something to be said for acting solo. Last year around this time, I was having discussions with friends about the merits of taking clearly political decisions - and by definition, risks - with no certainty of an analogous response from your adversary.

I am referring of course to President Christofias' decision to cancel the 'Nikiforos' military exercise, apparently without prior agreement with his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat, that there would be a similar move from across the divide. The subsequent decision to cancel the Turkish military exercise - 'Taurus' - was most probably the decision of the Turkish military establishment in the north of Cyprus. However, Christofias' decision caused a knee-jerk reaction by the Turkish army - a sign perhaps of an increased sensitivity that its role in Cyprus in under scrutiny.

What this episode reveals is that substancial decisions remain outside the realm of powers endowed upon the Turkish Cypriot leader. However, it also lends credence to the views of those who see a change in the dynamics of the settlement process. President Christofias, while criticised from within for conceding too much ground in the peace process, has set about presenting to the international community the whole picture regarding the current state of the Cyprus Problem. There was no guarantee that his move to cancel 'Nikiforos' would have provoked a similar reaction. But, in a way, it had to. The Turkish military could not be seen to fail to reciprocate Greek Cypriot concessions, in similar circumstances to the events of the Limnitis crossing back in August. The Turkish military establishment is, after all, a rational actor in the process. It responds to external circumstances in order to protect its interests - failure to cancel 'Taurus' would have created an unfavourable reaction from the international community, whom Christofias had already notified of his intentions to scale down Greek Cypriot military activity.

So one up for unilateralism. Incremental unilateralism that is. Incremental unilateralism with tangible results. Is this really the dawn of creative diplomacy in the Cyprus Problem?

You're not getting on!

2008-09-23T01:34:00.000-07:00

Why is it that we all need someone to hate? The creation of an adversarial ‘other’ seems an indispensable ingredient for filling the profile of someone, or something, where we can direct all our troubles and anger. The US had the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union had the US, the West has (or had if you believe that the Cold War is back) Islamic fundamentalism, the British public have Gordon Brown… My adversarial other is London bus drivers… Without the threat of nuclear annihilation.

For ages I have defended bus drivers in London against a barrage of criticism regarding their driving, their rude behaviour, their general existence… But that was because I hadn’t consistently encountered them in the morning rush hour. It took three and a bit weeks, but yesterday topped the bill. Five, yes five buses completely ignored mine and my fellow early-birds’ pleas to ride on their means of transportation. And not all of them were full. Oh no… And what was even more annoying, was the realisation that driving buses does not ensure immunity from that most reviled feature of human existence - group behaviour. If one does it, the one behind will do it too, and so on and so forth. And all this, even though there is space for one or two estranged passengers to jump on…

And that’s not all… You know what they’re thinking when they’re driving past you. Don’t be fooled by the blank look and empty stare that greets your desperate attempt to get to work on London’s public transport network. Behind that facade there’s a party going on, there’s disco-dancing, party poppers, bright red and yellow banners urging a crowd of flower-power-clad party-goers to belt out: ‘Now let me here you singing, You’re not getting on!, come on and sing it with me, You’re not getting oooon!’

So much for solidarity with London’s bus drivers – I’d rather support Gordon Brown.

Shooting the Messenger

2008-07-15T10:29:00.000-07:00

Top Quality 4-part documentary by Al-Jazeera on the dangers faced by foreign correspondents and war reporters in the post-Cold War period

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Cyprus and Divided Societies Workshop

2008-05-16T05:27:00.000-07:00

'The International Politics and Ethnic Conflict Cluster, School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy, and the Centre for Research in Political Psychology, School of Psychology at Queen's University Belfast in collaboration with the School of Planning, Architecture and Civil Engineering and the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) will host a multi-disciplinary workshop on Cyprus and Divided Societies on 20 -21 May 2008'.

Dr Brandon Hamber and I will be representing INCORE as Chairs of two of the panels - Dr Hamber will lead Session 1: Social Psychology And Bicommunal Encounters, and I will chair Session 3: European Integration: Borders And Identities.

For Greek readers, see this article in Kathimerini.

Excellent Alternatives

2008-05-15T06:13:00.000-07:00

ZMag.org, and by extension ZNet, are an excellent source for, among other things, articles and podcasts on subjects as diverse as International Relations and Ecology. This extract is an interview with the revisionist Israeli historian Illan Pappe, speaking about his book The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine. Read John Whitbeck's review here.

Innovative approach to news reporting

2008-05-14T04:49:00.000-07:00

Hats off to the BBC - and Jeremy Bowen in particular - for what can only be described, at the very least, as a promotion of frontline journalism. The clip, halfway down this article, is visual evidence of the pittfalls that foreign correspondents face while reporting from conflict zones. While this clip is short, it highlights the uncertainty, danger, and downright heart-pounding day-to-day activities that those brave enough to report from places like today's Lebanon encounter.

A crisis reborn

2008-05-14T01:39:00.000-07:00

The word 'coup' carries with it a lot of political baggage - the removal or overthrow of governments, in the Middle East in particular, always carry references of this over-loaded term. And, true to tradition, the recent worrying events in Lebanon have been accompanied by increasing fears that the Shiite organisation of Hizballah is attempting an action of this nature. One exceptional blog reports that even the media is being cracked down upon following the angry reaction of Hizballah to the attempted closure of its telecommunications network. A comfortable pretext perhaps?

As with all such explosions of tension and violence, the context must not be lost on observers. Should one subscribe to the idea that a coup is currently underway, then surely the violence of the past few days must be seen as a culmination of a train of covert activities of a coup-related nature. The series of politically-motivated assassinations which have rocked Beirut since the bombing of 'Mr Lebanon', Rafiq Hariri, have all significantly weakened the now customarily termed 'pro-Western faction' of Lebanon's political elite. The flip-side of these events has seen a strengthening of the - let's be honest - reactionary element of Lebanon's political establishment, and by extension a more prominent role for Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah and former army general Michel Aoun. The cavernous split of Lebanese politics, once a haven for factionalism which since consolidated into two distinct poles, was accentuated further by the emergence of Hizballah as 'moral victors' during the 2006 Israeli attack on Lebanon.

But what has really changed? Lebanon continues to represent the playground of regional and international powers in the Middle East. The US, or more tentatively, the West, favours the Siniora government. Iran and Syria, the former a 'rogue' state at loggerheads with the international community over its nuclear programme, have by various means and measures supported Hizballah since its creation in 1982. While a victor may not emerge from the latest turmoil, one thing is clear - George Bush's ludicrous claim that the US is doing everything to support the Siniora governmnent is evidence of a distinct power imbalance in the country. Comments from afar such as those by EU Commissioner for External Affairs Waldner are scant consolation for those caught up in the riotous Lebanese atmosphere. Moreover, the Lebanese government's appeal to the international community for military intervention has, thus far, fallen on deaf ears (one can only recall Siniora's tearful appeal for help at the Arab League Summit in the summer of 2006).

Would it be wrong to suggest that we are witnessing a solidifying of the power imbalance in the region? Or more correctly, a re-alignment of the balance of power? Measuring power has always posed significant problems to international observers, so influence would perhaps suffice to highlight this point. With the exception of the post-2006 peacekeeping force in Southern Lebanon, the international community has sat idly by while dangerous currents have intensified in the Middle East. Syria's removal - as questionable as this may sound - from Lebanon in March 2004 was as close as it gets to Western involvement in a country which has buckled under the pressures, both internal and external, which plague it to the present day.

The irony of the situation is that President Bush is due to visit the region to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the creation of Israel, an event of momentous joy to all bar, historically speaking, the Arabs. Should the inconceivable occur - and let's face it, how long can Siniora and his weak army hold out - and Hizballah extend its influence further, that joy could turn to pain for those rejoicing, and cast ever darker clouds over this most volatile of regions.

Hell on Earth - Gaza

2008-04-29T01:51:00.000-07:00

Unbelievable scenes in the Palestinian occupied territories - an explosion yesterday killed a mother and four of her young children as the conflict's 'collateral damage' is laid bare for all to see. The suffering of ordinary Palestinians, and Israelis to a lesser extent - a suffering which constitutes one of central aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict - is omminously becoming the defining feature of what has no developed into a fully-fledged tragedy.

While claims of apartheid and genocide fall on deaf ears, presumably due to their frightful connotations, the international community (whatever that has evolved to encompass) is guilty not only of inactivity but something closely resembling inhumanity. The periodic closure of the Gaza Strip to the outside world - an Israeli tactic whose logic lies in the forcible coercion of Hamas to moderate its positions vis-a-vis Israel - is clearly having the opposite effect. Funeral scenes such as those above will only serve to radicalise the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and further alienation from their own people in the West Bank who are treated favourably in comparison.

Many have deemed these actions as traditional 'divide-and-rule' tactics, but this intra-Palestinian split is nothing new; it has simply become more localised, regionalised, geographicalised if you like, into two distinct enclaves. And while the two-state solution slips further into the realms of history, the emotion and human suffering in Gaza will only continue to simmer, creating an ever further fertile breeding ground for ideologies which espouse militant forms of Islam to take root. These cycles of violence show no sign of coming to an end - and the implosion of the Palestinian people draws ever closer.

New International Crisis Group Board Members

2008-04-28T08:18:00.000-07:00

The International Crisis Group has announced that 13 new members will join its Board of Trustees from 1 July 2008. They are the following, including some pretty influential figures:

Ali Alatas Foreign Minister of Indonesia (1988-1998)

HRH Prince Turki al-Faisal Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to the United States of America (2005-2007)

Kofi Annan Secretary-General of the United Nations (1997-2007); Nobel Peace Prize (2001)

Louise Arbour UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (2004-2008); Chief Prosecutor for the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and for Rwanda (1996-1999), Canada

Richard Armitage U.S. Deputy Secretary of State (2001-2005)

Lord (Paddy) Ashdown High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina (2002-2006); Leader of the Liberal Democrats, UK (1988-1999)

Emma Bonino Minister of International Trade and European Affairs, Italy (2006-2008); European Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid (1994-1999)

Yegor Gaidar Prime Minister of Russia (1992)

Alexander Kwaśniewski President of Poland (1995-2005)

Moisés Naím Editor-in-chief, Foreign Policy magazine; Minister of Trade and Industry, Venezuela (1989-1990)

Güler Sabancı Chairperson, Sabancı Holding, Turkey

Larry Summers President, Harvard University (2001-2006); U.S. Secretary of the Treasury (1999-2001)

Jessica Tuchman Matthews President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, U.S.

The Cruelty of the Beautiful Game

2008-04-23T02:52:00.000-07:00

Everyone has moments when they wish the ground would just open up and swallow them whole; if only that nightmare could have become reality for John Arne Riise in last night's Champions League semi-final. The last kick, or header as it turned out, of another intriguing match-up between Liverpool and Chelsea, summed up just how something so beautiful can be so cruel in equal measure. For Riise, the cruelty is obvious. For Liverpool, the realisation that the writers of their Champions League fate may have decided to change the script at the last minute. For Chelsea and Avram Grant, the cruelty should lie in the realisation that this expensively assembled motley crew are a million miles away from winning this glorious trophy on last night's evidence.

The fact that Chelsea stole and retained the upper hand in the first twenty five minutes of yesterday's duel should come as no surprise. Liverpool started slowly against Arsenal in the quarter-final, and were duly outplayed by the Gunners' vibrant youngsters. Their home form in the group stage, barring the demolishion of Besiktas, was also sluggish. But Chelsea flattered to deceive; Drogba's ability to turn an inoccuous challenge into a meal of sumptuous delight undermined their authority. His theatrics last night were a sombre reminder that a player of such unquestionable talent can possess such a questionable temperament. Subsequenly, Liverpool took control. Dirk Kuyt, his side's Champions League heartbeat, hassled, ran, and scored to send Liverpool into a half-time lead.

If Chelsea's second half performance was poor, Liverpool will look back on it as one of the best halves they've played all season. Camped inside the opposition half for much of it, they ran Chelsea ragged, and as the game opened up at the end, at Gerrard's and Torres' expense, Petr Cech gave a reminder of how a world-class goalkeeper is an asset beyond measure. But even the great ghosts of Liverpool's glorious past could not have invisaged the carnage that may have killed off the home side's hopes of lifting the magical trophy for a sixth time.

Cue the scene for Riise's moment of madness, his lack of a right foot (bar his goal in the Nou Camp last season) gagging the boisterous Kop into a deafening silence.

Cue delirium in the visiting supporters berth at the Anfield Road end.

Cue madness, cue cruelty...

Paxman speaks his mind

2008-04-22T04:12:00.000-07:00

Quite right too...

Retrospective Justice

2008-04-18T02:59:00.000-07:00

The commendable work undertaken by the Frontline Blogger to bring to our attention the daily deterioration of working conditions for foreign correspondents/journalists in the regions they report from is not enough.

This link to the Times Online website - a video of the final moments of a Palestinian reporter before being hit by Israeli fire - is the latest example of how indiscriminate acts by military forces are undermining this most noble of professions.

But in the grand scheme of things, this process of degrading the role of reporters in conflict zones is the least important consideration in light of the loss of life of people like Fadel Shana. To the conflict his death counts as just another piece of the collateral jigsaw puzzle, but in the cold light of day the world is a poorer place without him, or for that matter any other foreign correspondent lost on the frontline.

Surely the time has come to bring governments/military establishments to bear for these crimes. It would take a spectacular advocacy effort to get such events classified as war crimes, but some system of retrospective justice must be set in place for the victims of violence against the media. Without it, not only will the journalistic profession proceed along its current perrilous course, but justice for those who lost their lives will never be ensured.

J Street - a road to Middle East peace?

2008-04-16T03:01:00.000-07:00

J Street, a new lobby organisation aiming to fill the vacuum and promote the voice of the silent majority, was launched in the US yesterday. A political counter-weight to the all-powerful AIPAC, and a strong advocate of diplomacy over conflict, J Street has already come under fire from influential figures such as Dennis Ross over whether it will be able to manoeuvre between party lines.

This development raises the question of what is required for a lobby group to be successful? Support within the political establishment, bottomless pots of funds/donations, the moral high ground?

Watch J Street's video here.

World Conflict Transformation Centre

2008-04-14T02:28:00.000-07:00

Everyone here at INCORE thought they would be arriving at work for another routine Monday morning. But instead, their customary cup of tea was interrupted by the delight in reading that Magee Campus (University of Ulster, Derry) is to host a centre for world peace. And all this based upon INCORE's renowned expertise.

No wonder the sun has been shining all weekend!

Resistance Broken

2008-04-09T01:34:00.000-07:00

I've resisted this for so long, but I have to break my vow and comment about Liverpool - the temptation has been there from the start, but now is the time... And only because Arsene Wenger belittled himself once again last night by suggesting that Arsenal could not accept defeat because they are a superior team to Liverpool...

Last night's game saw 'the beautiful game' - Arsenal were majestic in the first 25-30 minutes, zipping the ball around the pitch with a speed and finesse that left Liverpool chasing shadows. It left some, including myself, fearing the worst. But, the rabid animal that is Liverpool on Anfield European nights bit back. Against the run of play, and exposing Arsenal's key weakness (in defence), Liverpool were level, and, contrary to Wenger's comments, took control. Arsenal's rhythm and energy disappeared, like a diver whose tank was empty and is struggling in desperation to come up for air.

Torres' goal changed the game - Arsenal intensified their long-ball tactics, Liverpool's energy levels dropped but Anfield stood firm. Theo Walcott, Arsenal's outstanding player over the two legs, despite only being a substitute in both, set up the equaliser. But Anfield stood firm, and Liverpool's unerring belief stayed intact. Yes, Arsene, the challenge on Hleb in the Round 1 was, in most people's eyes, a penatly. And yes Arsene, last night's challenge on Babel was, in most people's eyes a penalty, not 'a gift'. How pathetic, how low can one stoop and not admit that his best defender was done on the inside by Ryan Babel and in desperation bundled the Dutchman to the floor. The Kop sucked in Gerrard's penalty, Babel resisted Fabregas trips and shirt-pulls to settle the tie, and Anfield errupted for the fifth time to celebrate...

History remembers the victors, but in Arsenal they will remember the team that dared to stare Liverpool down on their turf, armed with their sublime total football and the football genious that is Cesc Fabregas. Superiority, Arsene, is something that is not always measureable. Or maybe you just can't see that either.

Endorsements keep coming in

2008-04-07T04:32:00.000-07:00

I know the foreign media have been getting carried away with the latest developments in Cyprus, but the endorsements for action have been flooding from every (in)conceivable direction.

General Buyukanit:
'We have no doubt that those who govern northern Cyprus including the president as well as officials in Turkey know what sort of peace is fair and long-lasting but their interlocutors should also know this; namely the South must understand this well.' (OK, he's not exactly donning the olive branch, but at least he speaks of peace)

Georgios Karatzaferis (LAOS leader):
Ledra Street opening 'signals the possibility of a new era.' He also added 'that the hegemony of America in decisions on the wider region has been reduced.' (Well that must be a step in the right direction then)

Does the EU want Turkey?

2008-04-03T09:13:00.000-07:00

The European Union today dealt a hammer blow to any lingering hopes that Turkish democracy can be saved by removing the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) from the bloc's terror list. Cypriot MEP Marios Matsakis actually beat me to the conclusion that this move represents another nail in the coffin of the AKP's desperate attempt to salvage its position in power.

While I am not passing judgement on whether the group should or should not be on the list, this move will only serve to reinforce the convictions of the Turkish military establishment, and the 'deep state', that even the government's sporadic minor efforts to reach out to the Kurdish community are engendering grave consequences for Turkey.

Talk about bad timing...

Give credit where it is due

2008-04-03T01:36:00.000-07:00

A few months back I remember Sky News commenting on an amusing Israeli publicity campaign in which barenaked ladies paraded around Israeli beaches laying claim to a new image for Israel. The advert was commissioned by the Israeli government. Today, while browsing the impressive Los Angeles Times Babylon and Beyond Blog, I found this compelling advertisment cited by Batsheva Sobelman - 'At the end of every joint sits Nasrallah' it reads. Both campaigns are extremely provocative, but sumptuously creative and witty at the same time. Wouldn't it be so much more constructive if some of this creativity was channeled into more constructive Israeli-Palestinian peace initiatives. George Bush's recent visit to the Holy Land was as humorous as it was unconstructive. Any more examples of conflict-inspired creativity?

Ping-Pong Politics

2008-04-01T01:31:00.000-07:00

The importance of sport as a diplomatic tool extends to table tennis -

'China's first important sporting event - the ping-pong of 1971 - brought China, the US and the West together. Now, its second big event - the Olympics of 2008 - will test the strength of the ties made through sport'.

Stability and Prosperity in Question

2008-03-25T12:20:00.000-07:00

If you heard that the UK had been ranked as the 7th most stable and prosperous nation in the world, then where would you estimate your country lies?

A comment from our new Middle East expert

2008-03-20T01:19:00.000-07:00

If we didn't know already, now we do:
'Well, it's common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and is receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran.'
(John McCain 19/3/08)

This is the work of Independent Diplomat

2008-03-19T04:31:00.000-07:00

In keeping with my fascination with the work of the Independent Diplomat, I recently came across a speech given by its founding director Carne Ross at the United States Institute of Peace Research on March 5th 2008.

In this speech he confirmed that the letter posted below was drafted by Independent Diplomat. The letter is indeed short and sweet, to the point and with a pinch of dedication to a solution to the Cyprus Problem. While congratulating Demetris Christofias on his victory, Mr Talat, and the Independent Diplomat, have both seemingly failed to note that their major difference with the new Greek Cypriot leader. 'The goal', Mr Talat says, 'is to establish a new partnership state in Cyprus, based on the political equality of the two peoples and the equal status of two constituent states'. One wonders really whether or not the Independent Diplomat is aware that Greek and Turkish Cypriots never constituted 'two peoples'. The UN-sponsored peace process that they advocate has never made reference to the two peoples on Cyprus, speaking instead of solution that benefits Cypriots as a whole.

Somehow, the rhetoric used in this harmless letter smacks of ethnonationalism, a purely academic description which I use here to describe politics smeared with divisive, entrenched ethnic references. When Mr Christofias says that 'a new failure will be devastating for the future of our people, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots' it's not because he missed out the 's' from the word peoples, but because the description of Cypriots as Greeks and Turks has been overused and over-manipulated.

I never thought I would see eye-to-eye with a Cypriot hardliner, but Andreas Theophanous made a very valid point in an article in the Cyprus Mail recently. Commenting on a piece which appeared in the Foreign Affairs Journal about the recurring influence of ethnonationalism, Theophanous urged that 'any plan for Cyprus formulated exclusively on the premises of ethnonationalism' (seemingly in accordance with the understandings of the Independent Diplomat) should be subjected to vigorous criticism 'since it will lead to failure with unpredictable consequences'. Respect for bi-communality will be paramount, but preference must be given to an integrationalist federal model, as opposed to one which privileges notions of difference.

It is on this basis and background that the two leaders are scheduled to meet on Friday, March 21st. Let us hope that the opening of the border crossings at Ledras and Limnitis will be followed by a convergence on more substancial issues, perhaps informing international opinion that Cyprus is not an island of two peoples, and laying to rest an aspect of the conflict which has plagued it for far too long.

Letter to the editor of the Financial Times (5th March 2008)

2008-03-19T04:28:00.000-07:00

From Mr Mehmet Ali Talat.

Sir, Last month's elections on the Greek Cypriot side have opened a new chapter in the history of our island. The newly elected leader of the Greek Cypriots, Demetris Christofias, and I now share a grave responsibility: to reach a settlement for Cyprus acceptable to both peoples, based on political equality in a new partnership structure.

Much has changed since 2004, when the Turkish Cypriot people voted in favour of the comprehensive settlement plan proposed by then United Nations secretary-general Kofi Annan, while Greek Cypriots voted against. Ironically, a few days later the Greek Cypriots, who had rejected the UN settlement proposal, were admitted to full membership of the European Union, whereas we, who had just voted to end the division of the island, remained excluded. Despite that disappointment, we remain committed to a European approach and a UN-sponsored comprehensive solution for Cyprus.

It will be a comprehensive solution, with a great deal of input from our friends in the EU; but the process must be led by the UN. For four decades the UN has been at the centre of peace-making efforts. There is a vast accumulation of work on the Cyprus problem, which will be the basis of any future discussion and should not be wasted.

There will be difficult issues to deal with. Mr Christofias starts from a 75 per cent No vote, whereas I start from a 65 per cent Yes vote. The questions of property rights, of the preservation of our cultural heritage, of security arrangements, and most importantly for partnership in the future government of our island, will not be easy to resolve.

But they can and must be resolved. The details can be worked out; the goal is to establish a new partnership state in Cyprus, based on the political equality of the two peoples and the equal status of two constituent states. Only a settlement on that basis will be approved by the peoples of the island in a simultaneous and separate popular vote.

The election result demonstrates the desire of Greek Cypriots to change and move forward. I am unreservedly committed to the search for a settlement. I believe a settlement to be in the interests of my people, of the Greek Cypriots, of the island as a whole and of the European Union and the wider international community.

I am realistic. There will be tough talking ahead, and problems will inevitably arise. But I am determined to overcome them.

Mehmet Ali Talat,

President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

CYBC Exit Poll

2008-02-24T06:47:00.000-08:00

The CYBC exit poll reads as follows:

Ioannis Kasoulides: 49.2%

Demetris Christofias: 50.8%

Round 2 - Live!

2008-02-24T06:18:00.000-08:00

At 17.00 the exit polls will give an indication as to who the next Greek Cypriot President will be. There are no indicators, no whispers, nothing... Just tension!

Someone beat me to it!

2008-02-22T06:12:00.000-08:00

But follow this link to 'Stravara mas blog' - it's worth it

http://stravara.blogspot.com/2008/02/brrrr.html

Banksy's universal message

2008-02-22T02:33:00.000-08:00

Apologies for stealing Israeli and Palestinian thunder, but Banksy's image could apply in equal measure to Cyprus too! The olive branch, the dove... you know what I mean... But the question is, who is aiming to strike down the dove?

A sorry tale?

2008-02-22T01:36:00.000-08:00

The EU Observer reports today that 'EU defence ministers are discussing the possibility of building a special security force in Kosovo as well as measures needed to prevent clashes spreading to Bosnia and Herzegovina'. Moreover, there is a growing consensus that KFOR, the NATO force that was in line to be replaced by the EU, must remain in order to maintain stability in Kosovo. It seems like the decision to recognise Kosovar independence, a pricey one (in monetary value) from the off, will end up costing the international community a whole lot more should the region as a whole begin to exhibit its fabled 'Balkanised' tendencies. Serb riots have focussed their anger on foreign embassies such as that of the US, but an attack on the Croatian embassy highlights a deeper bitterness which has been dormant within the region.

On the same website, the editor of the online newspaper Europaworld has reinforced the view that 'Kosovo will be hanging even more heavily around the necks of the international community and the European Union in particular' for a long time to come. He calls it 'a sorry tale of short-term expediency over long-term planning and proof'; I could not agree more.

Out of hope comes despair

2008-02-21T07:07:00.000-08:00

And believe me, I hate to say it. But while there seemed to be a general sense of satisfaction after the first round of presidential elections in Cyprus, the days that followed proved that hope will remain 'a hope' until it is ratified. And that ratification seems a long way away...

The Democratic Party's (DIKO), whose leader Tassos Papadopoulos had been knocked out of the running, choice to side with Demetris Christofias in the run-up to Sunday's second round has been interpreted as a selfish, greedy, and ultimately dirty trick to manoeuvre itself back into a position of power and influence. Tuesday's decision came as a shock to the system, as indicators had overwhelmingly pointed towards support for Ioannis Kasoulides. In effect, the triparite coalition which ruled from 2003-2008 (DIKO, AKEL, EDEK) is seemingly set for a new term in office.

The change that many had hoped for could still emerge in the face of a new leader, Christofias. The anti-communist backlash has been relatively muted, and Christofias himself has promised a change of direction in terms of the Cyprus question. But the spectre of clientelism and deceit will linger over his administration should he emerge victorious on Sunday, and the shadow of the previous administration's stale tenure will be hard to cast aside. I've said this before, but no wonder a Cyprus solution continues to elude the island. Such mysterious developments, and behind-the-scenes haggling have plagued Cyprus politics since the Turkish invasion, the result of which is that a unified stance over the island's future has remained a distant hope. The inability of any government to attain a mandate strong enough to enact a solid policy over the Cyprus problem has crippled visions for a solution with time fast becoming a luxury that can't be had.

The message of the Kasoulides campaign has been one of national unity, and that Greek Cypriots will, in the end, forgo their partisan affiliations and unite around his pro-European, foreward-thinking approach. He too has made mistakes; seeking the support of the powerful Church and hardline ex-EOKA fighter groups are seen as desparate measures to mobilise civil society in his favour. The feeling is that Sunday's second round will be close, but not close enough for Kasoulides. Inside and outside observers must, and quite righly so, be despairing at the events of this week. If that despair is to turn to hope then it is up to Greek Cypriots of all dispositions to grapple with their faith and channel their energy into what they truly believe is the right way forward in a non-partisan direction. Whatever the outcome of Sunday, it will be an accurate reflection of the direction in which Cyprus is heading.

Humanitarian Intervention

2008-02-20T05:37:00.000-08:00

For all those who wish to see the best what the BBC has to offer, the World Tonight Blog with pieces written by Robin Lustig, are prime examples of what good editorials should look like.

Speaking on the issue of humanitarian intervention, and British Foreign Secretary David Milliband's speech on the 'democratic imperative', Lustig offers the opinion that 'what we are learning is that the spread of democracy does not in itself necessarily bring with it greater stability.' He refers specifically to the example East Timor where, despite the international community's involvement, political instability is still rife. Lustig questions whether Kosovo's US-UK-supported independence will be followed by stability in the Balkans, where ethnic minorities will see this development as an organice declaration of self-determination.

Taking this question a step further however reveals 'stability' itself is a highly contested and nuanced concept. Stability for whom? For the individual country concerned, for the wider region, or for those who support the spread of democracy? Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has enjoyed the continued support of the US, despite employing quite anti-democratic measures to maintain control. In view of the sweeping victory by the opposition parties in the recent parliamentary elections questions will be raised over whether this new state of affairs in Pakistan will be allowed to take root. A low voter turnout indicates that much work needs to be done in order to fully restore faith in Pakistan's democracy. Should Musharraf leave office, it will be interesting to see what line a new Pakistani leader would take, and whether he/she would receive US backing. If stability entails unrelenting support for the war of terror, than the democratic process will be supported. Should a new leader intepret the democratic mandate in a different light, then the international community (different interpretations exist) could easily reneg on its promises and curtail its support. All in the name of stability...

After the UDI

2008-02-19T06:55:00.000-08:00

Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence represents, according to some analyses, the final piece of the Balkans jigsaw which began with the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia. It has been seen as the ultimate expression of the right to self-determination by a predominantly ethnic Albanian province choosing to secede from Serbia. Kosovo’s independence, supported by the US, the UK and other EU member-states, also represents the latest nail in the coffin of the legalistic interpretation of state sovereignty, an international norm in decline which safeguards the territorial integrity of the modern state. In this light, Kosovo’s recognition bandwagon has been shunned by numerous states which fear the repercussions that such a precedent would set in motion. Most notably Spain has refused to recognise Kosovo basing its stance on its strong legalistic interpretation of sovereignty, enshrined in the United Nations Charter, allied with a fear that separatist elements within Spain (Basque Country, Catalunya) will seek to replicate Kosovo’s move. Cyprus has been seen as maintaining the most vehement refusal of recognition, since they fear this development will create a climate favourable to its breakaway Turkish Cypriot community to legitimately stake its own claim to international acceptance of its own UDI in 1983. In addition, Romania and Bulgaria, two of the EU’s latest recruits, have also refused recognition fearing a domino effect within their own borders amongst their multi-ethnic composition.

A historical reading of this development also points to the abrogation of the 1975 Helsinki Act which affirmed that borders within Europe would not be altered without the consent of all countries concerned. The break-up of Czechoslovakia was a mutual decision, whereas Serbia’s consent has not been sought. Therefore, Kosovar independence poses a serious threat to the unity and cohesion of the EU, since its practical support for Kosovo in the form of an EU-led administration force has been countered by the moral and legal objection by a number of contributing countries. Ultimately the Union’s first active attempt at forging a common foreign policy initiative since Maastricht (1993) has been shrouded in a cloud of hypocrisy and accusations of double standards, a new black dot to accompany the controversy caused by the new EU constitutional treaty.

Question marks have also been levelled against Kosovo’s economic viability, its stagnant economy riddled with corruption and illegal trade, hardly a shining example to be upheld by the fairness and transparency of the West. With 50% unemployment and with bleak prospects for foreign investment, only vast amounts of foreign aid will be able to stabilise this fledgling economy. To counter this argument, the US in particular will point to its moral right to intervene in a humanitarian catastrophe, as the NATO-led campaign in 1999 against Slobodan Milosevic’s campaign of ethnic cleansing represents a ‘just war’ in the name of upholding the collective rights of an ethnic minority. While privileging human rights over economic stability is the most likely explanation for support of Kosovo’s secession, there are no doubt numerous ethnic groups who will claim that they too have had their human rights suspended by their host state. The Kurdish minority in Turkey, admittedly not a victim of systematic persecution, has long had its cultural traditions and freedoms suppressed in order to preserve Turkey’s ethnic unity. The emergence of a strong autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan in northern Iraq has fueled an analogous desire by Turkey’s Kurds for increased cultural autonomy, historically so often a precursor to a more active campaign for political independence, as was the case in the break-ups of both the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires. There is however, no uniform pattern of development of international norms. The Kosovo Liberation Army was, in the late 1990’s, recognised as a popular resistance movement, from whose ranks emerged the first Kosovar Prime Minister. On the other hand the Kurdish equivalent, the PKK, has been clustered together with other armed groups, or non-state actors, such as al-Qaeda, and is afforded the treatment suitable to those on the opposing side of the global ‘war on terror’. Turkey’s recognition of Kosovo may have been a political move in line with the US, but it should brace itself for further criticism over the treatment of its ethnic minorities. Turkey is just one of the countries from which Serbia has recalled it ambassador, a further sign that a serious diplomatic fall-out could result from Sunday's outcome.

So 'Pandora's Box' has been opened, and it remains to be seen exactly what will emerge. What is certain is that the international community has been polarised further by this development, and while traditional adversaries remain (US-Russia), the recognition of Kosovo's UDI has necessitated that other states opt for otherwise unforseeable alignments. What is more worrying is that the US and UK which have spearheaded Kosovo's recognition have done so in breach of international law (UNSC Resolution 1244). If the UN Secretary General himself cannot confirm the binding nature of UN resolutions (18th Feb 2008), then the international system could be in danger of slipping from anarchy into chaos.

Foreign Media Reacts to Greek Cypriot elections

2008-02-18T00:43:00.000-08:00

Yesterday's unexpected result is likely to have caught the international media by suprise. A recurring image in most of the stories is that of elderly people struggling through the voting procedure. This begs the reminder that the high voter turnout was reinforced by the young population's activity, which showed a clear preference for Kasoulides and Christofias. Perhaps this development will break the long-standing, entrenched perception of Cyprus as a setting of age-old conflict and pain. Below is a summary of the reaction:

Independent Online: 'Shock defeat opens door to united Cyprus' - John Lichfield's assessment is that the result 'might suggest that the Greek-Cypriot community has become less militant in the past four years.' While the term militancy is questionable in this context, this article reflects the general feeling that Greek Cypriots had taken an increasingly hard-line over the Cyprus Problem in particular.

BBC News: 'Cypriot President ousted in poll' - the BBC offers perhaps a more accurate reflection of the result noting that 'the result shows that most Cypriots have clearly rejected Mr Papadopoulos's uncompromising approach to solving the Cyprus problem in favour of a more open-minded candidate.'

Times Online: 'Cyprus unification back on the agenda' - The Times has sensibly sought the views of an expert on the Cyprus Problem, with a focus on the international repercussions of the result. Dr. James Ker-Lindsay of Kingston University (UK) notes that 'Kasoulides and Christofias are seen as two candidates who represent the chance for a solution. I think there will be a lot of attention now (from the international community) giving one last really good go at reunification.'

Al-Jazzerah: 'Cyprus President eliminated in poll' - Short and sweet, but noting that noting that 'Papadopoulos' concession came in a telephone call to Christofias to congratulate him' - perhaps an indicator of where the former president's new loyalties will lie.

Financial Times: 'Papadopoulos defeat offers peace talks hope' - The FT notes the importance of the fly-in vote, noting that 'the expat vote tipped the balance.' However, in a reflection of the current climate which privileges simplified versions of the Cyprus situtation, the ending statement asserts that 'the “no” vote blocked the impoverished Turkish Cypriot republic in north Cyprus from European Union accession, damaging relations between the communities.'

The New York Times: 'Cypriot President loses in first round' - Common ground between yesterday's two qualifiers where 'despite coming from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum, Mr. Kasoulides and Mr. Christofias both emphasized the need for diplomacy to stave off the threat of permanent partition.'

CNN: 'Surprise result in Cypriot elections' - See above.

Greek Press

2008-02-17T10:56:00.000-08:00

Greek daily Kathimerini offers a timely reminder that whatever the result of today's election, the wider picture is one of scepticism and apprehension. For Greek readers.

FINAL RESULTS - CYPRUS HAS WON

2008-02-17T08:49:00.000-08:00

The final results of the Greek Cypriot presidential election 2008 are as follows:

Ioannis Kasoulides (MEP): 33.51%

Demetris Christofias (Chairman of the House of the Representatives): 33.29%

Tassos Papadopoulos (Current Incumbent): 31.79%

Tentative Conclusions/Questions:
- Where, and why, did the exit-polls go wrong? A clear role-reversal.
- Where will the DIKO and its affiliated parties vote go for Round 2? The personality/cult figure vote will be replaced by party political voting.
- What will be the reaction of the international community? Endorsing either candidate could prove crucial to the final result.

Papadopoulos out of the race

2008-02-17T08:36:00.000-08:00

Tassos Papadopoulos is out of the race - Ioannis Kasoulides and Demetris Christofias are fighting it out for victory in Round 1, with both candidates in and around the 33% mark. The Republic of Cyprus will have a new President in a week's time, and a renewed hope for solution to the Cyprus Problem.

Over 2/3 of the vote-count

2008-02-17T08:30:00.000-08:00

70.2% of the vote

Kasoulides: 33.6%

Christofias: 33.19%

Papadopoulos: 31.8%

A mid-way anecdote

2008-02-17T08:27:00.001-08:00

I've just heard the quote of the day : 'Look who's crying now...'

Half-way there

2008-02-17T08:21:00.000-08:00

55.5% of the vote

Kasoulides: 33.66%

Christofias: 33.13%

Papadopoulos: 31.81%

It's still too close to call...

2008-02-17T08:07:00.000-08:00

30% of the vote

Kasoulides: 33.39%

Christofias: 32.94%

Papadopoulos: 32.26%

The exit polls have further strengthened the notion that the result is still too close to call. What is becoming clear is that, based on the precentages of the last parliamentary elections, Tassos Papadopoulos is fast becoming the biggest loser so far.

Kosovo's Independence Ratified

2008-02-17T07:50:00.000-08:00

In a perverse parallel development, Kosovo's parliament has endorsed the expected declaration of independence from Serbia. Prime Minister Hassim Thaci stated that 'the independence of Kosovo marks the end of the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia' as the Balkans puzzle has seemingly fragmented further. Meanwhile, Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica has labelled Kosovo 'a failed state.' Tomorrow will be a very interesting day...

Voting Percentage

2008-02-17T07:28:00.000-08:00

89% of the electorate has voted in this year's elections - the voter turnout is an important sign of their utmost importance

17.00 Exit Poll all television stations

2008-02-17T06:58:00.000-08:00

POLLING - LOWEST - HIGHEST

SIGMA (ballot poll)
Christofias: 32.4% - 34.4%; Kasoulides: 31.5% - 33.5%; Papadopoulos: 31% - 33%

CYBC (ballot poll)
Christofias: 32% - 35%; Kasoulides: 31% - 34%; Papadopoulos: 31% - 34%

MEGA (tele-poll)
Papadopoulos: 32% - 35% ; Christofias: 31% - 34% ; Kasoulides: 30.5% - 33.5%

ANTI (tele-poll)
Papadopoulos: 32.2% - 35.4% Christofias: 31.7 - 34.9%; Kasoulides: 30.2% - 33.5%

Surprise on the cards?

2008-02-17T06:50:00.000-08:00

SIGMA (and hearsay) are hinting at a surprise result. Rumour has it (and I stress, rumour) has positioned President Tassos Papadopoulos in third place after 70% of the vote count. We await confirmation... as Marios Matsakis has just said ' welcome to Cyprus.'

Greek Cypriot Presidential Election - Live!

2008-02-17T06:16:00.000-08:00

The first round of voting in the Greek Cypriot presidential elections is reaching a climax, with the first exit polls expected to be announced at 17.oo. The mood in Cyprus is one of apprehension, tension, and hope as the contest remains too close to call. The foreign media have also been keeping a close eye on the day's developments - below is a selection of online news agencies who are covering today's elections:

Agence France Press: http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/080217083944.qcduf301.html

BBC News:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7249126.stm

Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL1643082220080217

Al-Jazeerah:

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A21E3922-E636-416A-B9F4-DA0EE69AFE71.htm

PRIO Cyprus

2008-02-15T14:00:00.000-08:00

The principle of bizonality with regards the Cyprus Problem is a massive issue that will need to be tackled if a settlement is to be achieved. On this topic, I would urge all interested observers to read the work of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (Cypurs), and especially the publication entitled 'The Property Issue in the Cyprus Conflict.' The work of such organisations will be crucial to Cypriots in understanding their respective concerns and view-points.

ICG Weekly Update

2008-02-15T13:10:00.000-08:00

Hugh Pope, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group writing in the Wall Street Journal, has voiced his own opinion as to how the Cyprus problem will be solved. One wonders whether the ICG, one of the largest conflict resolution organisations of worldwide resonance, is actually keeping an eye on the situation in Cyprus.

As is customary in ICG reports and articles the author ends with a call that 'all sides should appeal to the U.N. to return to mediate a comprehensive settlement', only days after Special Representative Michael Moller spoke with scepticism over the UN's active involvement in a future comprehensive settlement. Mr Moller's emphasis on a solution from within Cyprus is commendable, calling on both communities to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible.

However, this position fails to encompass the importance of Turkey's role in an overall settlement. On this aspect, the ICG seems well versed. 'At every turn, Greek Cypriots have used their EU membership to punish Turkey, notably by trying to torpedo Ankara's accession talks.' Nevertheless, Turkey has retained its position on the EU conveyor belt. Moreover, Hugh Pope also notes that 'for the Greek Cypriots, a settlement is the only way to win the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the island.' It follows therefore from this statement that only within a negotiated settlement can Greek Cypriots achieve the withdrawal of Turkish troops. This, obviously, is the 'deal' that he refers to that Turkey will need to strike in order 'to resume its stalled enlargement talks with the EU.' The implications are that Turkey is acting well within its own favourable parameters in keeping its troops in Cyprus, safe in the knowledge that its EU accession will get back on track as soon as the Cyprus problem appears well on its way to a solution.

Statements such as these are becoming increasingly common - the only effect they can have is to absolve Turkey of its responsibility in the prolongation of the stalemate. If Turkey's EU orientation was so clear-cut, then not only would it be more willing to adhere to its obligations vis-a-vis the EU and its member-states but it would also be in its interest to remove its troops from the north of Cyprus. While political will from both sides is indispensable, this must not detract from the realities which affect the situation on the ground. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Turkey, safe in the knowledge that it endorsed the 2004 Annan Plan, will sit pretty on its moral high-horse. Stating that all parties have their respective responsibilities in one thing; the parties actually acknowledging them is quite another.

Foreign policy? How do you spell that?

2008-02-13T06:44:00.000-08:00

Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Erato Markoulli stormed into her new post with an aura of confidence typical of someone whose career has been built around the very content of her new appointment. This aura suggested that the Republic of Cyprus would engage in a more active and assertive foreign policy. But more importantly, she entered by questioning President Papadopoulos' judgement of international affairs. But, as the general election looms large this coming weekend, her judgement, and by extension that of the government as a whole, is overshadowed by a question-mark which could determine whether their term in office will extended for another five-year period.

The timing of these elections has coincided quite dramatically with events which will determine the future status of the Serbian province of Kosovo. Since the passing in December 2007 of a UN deadline for a decision on Kosovo's status, a growing consensus is pointing to the inevitability of a unilateral declaration of independence by the Kosovo Albanian majority. The move appears to have received unanimous approval by the EU and the US. In fact, 26 out of the 27 member-states will contribute to the EU force which will take over from the UN interim administration which has been in place since 1999. Cyprus is the odd one out. The Greek Cypriots are rightly apprehensive over the precedent this UDI is likely to create. A similar action was deemed internationally unlawful in 1983 when the 'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus' was declared. It is fair to say that the Papadopoulos government has wavered over its handling of the situation. While initially expressing her concern over Kosovo, Markoulli has since revised her position stating that the two situations cannot be linked. Papadopoulos has also been quick to dispell fears created by the comments of Russia's deputy Prime Minister Sergei Lavrov who saw recognition of the 'TRNC' as a 'logical step' in the aftermath of Kosovo's recognition.

But facts speak louder than words. Cyprus' potential involvement in the EU's Kosovo force would have been based on the binding legality of UNSC Resolution 1244 (1999), which reaffirms the international community’s commitment to the ‘territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.’ While the parallels with Cyprus are obvious, its exclusion can only be interpreted as the EU's determination to go beyond Kosovar ‘substantial autonomy and meaningful self-administration’ to full recognition. Moreover, Cyprus' participation in the EU presence would have been jeopardised by Turkey's role in NATO. The Alliance contributed troops to the UN interim force, and Turkey would most likely have vetoed Cyprus' participation.

So where has Cyprus' foreign policy succeeded? Russia, traditionally an important ally in the international arena, has spoken of the inevitability of Cypriot partition, despite a vehement stand against Kosovo's independence. Another perceived ally, Serbia, has set sail for the EU - recently re-elected President Tomislav Nikolic is an EU enthusiast, but it remains to be seen if he will sacrifice Kosovo to achieve this end. It is difficult to see where the government has exercised foreign policy at all. Its biggest success, overseeing Cyprus' accession to the EU, has been tempered by the Union's lack of enthusiasm for overseeing a comprehensive settlement. In addition to this, the UN, through its Special Representative Michael Moller, has also spoken of a reluctance to engage in another full-scale settlement process. In other words its previous effort, the Annan Plan, remains its basis for involvement in Cyprus. It also seems that the Cyprus government is oblivious to the developments in the region's energy politics. The recent visit by Gerhard Schroeder to the 'TRNC', now representing the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom, reveals how wider processes are working against a solution to the Cyprus problem. Turkey's distancing from the EU, its realisation of the market potential for energy provision and the two countries' proximity to the Iranian regime has seen an unprecedented convergence of Russo-Turkish interests. While there are no formal alliances to confirm this movement, it would be wrong to assume that the EU and the US will necessarily intervene to reverse this trend.

Realpolitik dictates that alliances are countered by alliances. It is significant that Cyprus' main alliance lies with the EU. What is strange therefore is that the EU has pressed ahead with its foreign policy and enlargement policies (with Turkey) contrary to its commitments to a member-state. The euphoria of EU accession in 2004 now seems like a long-forgotten interlude. Insularity in international relations has always been greatly discouraged. Only by remedying one's foreign policy can a change in direction be achieved - Papadopoulos' mandate in this field could well be close to expiration.

Turkey’s energetic position puts the EU on the spot

2008-02-11T05:46:00.000-08:00

The future of the Nabucco Pipeline Project will determine who the EU will depend on for its natural gas provision in the years to come. What the EU will also find out is whether Turkey is truly treading the line of EU membership. Its orientation now hangs in the balance after the initial euphoria which surrounded its perceived commitment to come into line with EU regulations for enlargement. And Ankara’s persistent resistance over Gaz de France not joining the project’s consortium has led to increasing tensions with the European Commission. Should Turkey stand in the way of the project’s progress and effectiveness then the EU would seemingly have no choice but to continue its reliance on Russia, despite the recent payments disagreement with the Ukraine.

Turkey meanwhile is pursuing its own independent energy policy. The complexity of its position lies in its geographical location and its economic alliances which have enabled it to forge stable partnerships with all the key players in the energy game. Russia provides 65% of Turkey’s natural gas, which makes that relationship integral to Turkey’s national interest. However, in 2007 it signed an agreement with Iran, an emerging competitor to Russia for gas provision to Europe, which foresaw the two countries’ cooperation in transferring Iranian gas to Europe via Turkey. US opposition to this move was tempered by recent revelations that Iran’s danger to the international system may have been exaggerated by certain figures within the Bush administration. Meanwhile, Ali Babacan’s recent visit to India, the first by a Turkish Foreign Minister for thirty years, was aimed at offering the Indian government a viable alternative oil source to that of Iran. The advantages offered by Turkey rest on the security of the oil’s provision. While the plan’s cost-effectiveness lies in that the pipelines are already in operation, the Ashkelon-Eilat pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline also represent alternatives vis-à-vis Iran and the instability in the Persian Gulf. Political ties between Israel and Turkey are strong, while their economic cooperation was strengthened after the two governments announced plans to carry water, electricity, natural gas and oil to Israel by way of a proposed Ceyhan-Ashkelon-Eilat passage.

What remains to be seen is how Turkey will continue to juggle its energy commitments without privileging one over the other. Its bridge-location to the energy-rich fields of the Caucasus and Iran could conceivably set it at odds with Russia over the provision of gas to Europe, while bilateral energy agreements with countries like India could provoke hostility from Iran. Moreover, security and defence concerns, with Turkey firmly aligned with the US and Israel could ultimately prove the most important considerations, rupturing ties with Iran altogether. Turkey would not want regional power competition from Iran to affect its accelerating development economic. However, it appears likely that the biggest loser of all could be the EU, whose energy concerns are intimately linked to Turkey’s integration into the Union, a path which has been rocked by various incidents in the last two years. Ankara’s refusal to open its air and sea ports to the Republic of Cyprus remains on the back-burner, and there could be a temptation on the part of the EU to ignore this non-compliance in favour of its energy policy. Ignoring its commitments to an EU member-state would be devastating to the Union’s image of equality and fairness. The EU agreed to accept the Republic without the precondition of a settlement, which also leaves the Turkish Cypriots, as EU citizens, in an untenable position. The repercussions are seemingly endless…

Latest Polls

2008-02-11T03:40:00.000-08:00

A week to go and the race for round 2 is hotting up:

Phileftheros (ΓΝΩΡΑ/RAI) - Christofias (30%), Kasoulides (30.3%), Papadopoulos (32.7%)
Politis (Noverna) - Christofias (30.3%), Kasoulides (30.4%), Papadopoulos (32.1%)
Simerini (Insights) - Christofias (32.1%), Kasoulides (30.5%), Papadopoulos (32.6%)
ΑΝΤ1 (Evresis) - Christofias (31.3%), Kasoulides (29.7%), Papadopoulos (33.5%)
SIGMA (Eur. Univ.) - Christofias (31.4%), Kasoulides (30.0%), Papadopoulos (31.4%)

Politics, class and reunification

2008-02-11T02:55:00.000-08:00

I suppose this post is something of a responce to an article which appeared on the Cyprus Mail website recently. The article comments on what I would describe as the modern urban middle-class Greek Cypriot who has been engulfed by the wealth which has been generated in Cyprus in the past two decades. This article is indeed interesting, but not revelatory. Indeed it is something that any perceptive individual would be able to pick up on after spending a short period of time in Cyprus.

The truth is simply that a very significant proportion of Greek Cypriots are quite contented with their life at present, and it follows that they would be reluctant to change that. Cyprus was once described as 'an economic miracle', but these are the by-products of that development. Some of the results are not all necessarily harmful - on the contrary, the author mentions that the offspring of this class grouping will go abroad and study, returing as well-qualified, well-rounded individuals. In other words, they will have had some experience of living abroad and interacting with people of different faiths/ethnic background etc which people in the Cyprus of old were not able to experience. One would expect therefore that the 'insular' mentality would be vanquished by these experiences.

But blaming just that portion of the population for the stagnation of intercommunal feeling would be foolish. Much can be said for the complex nature of the Greek Cypriot electorate (since we are in the throws of an election) and there is as much apathy emanating from groups as diverse as refugees, hotelowners, and even a very small group of extreme nationalist supporters (Chrysi Avgi). The author uses sarcasm to describe the decadence that characterises the way modern Greek Cypriots go about their daily lives. What differentiates these middle-class economists and businessmen/women from the aforementioned rejectionists is that they are not united by an agenda against active engagement in a unification process. They are simply enjoying the riches afforded to them by their education and the inheritance that Cyprus is so famous for, a phenomenon by no means unique to Cyprus. I propose a different explanation for their apathy, and this lies in the lack of progress on the political front which has toiled with a series of eroneous decisions which date back to the 1977 High-Level Agreements.

The counter-argument would highlight the fact that it is from this class that the political elite in Cyprus is drawn. This to a certain extent is true, but this contented class is far more extensive than just the pool from which Cyprus' polticians emerge. And herein lies a possible avenue for remobilising this dormant group. Read any mediator's account of their efforts and they will point to how much easier it was to engage with technocrats and business-people than it was politicians. The role of civil society in a reunification process has been stunted by political efforts to construe any private initiatives for peace as counter to the interests of the respective communities. The burden lies with the next president to try and engage this 'disenfranchised' group with the politics of reunification, bringing to the table mutual interests of a less normative nature. Let's hope that whoever is elected will heed the warning signs all around him.

ICG Weekly Update

2008-02-08T09:12:00.000-08:00

International Crisis Group Weekly Review

The ICG published two reports this week:

Iraq: Iraq's Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge (7 February 2008)

Afghanistan: The Need for International Resolve (6 February 2008) - or alternatively, 'Support the War you didn't start'

I cannot believe what I'm reading...

2008-02-07T08:42:00.001-08:00

No wonder the Cyprus problem will never be solved. How low can Cyprus politics stoop? Everyone knows that football and politics have long gone hand in hand, but this new breed of 'football populism' is a new beast altogether.

Parties and presidential candidates publicly taking sides in the well-publicised furore which erupted in the aftermath of the Apollon-APOEL match last weekend only serves to highlight the immaturity and lack of professionalism which characterises Cyprus politics. But what's worse is that these events expose the juvenile nature of the electorate that the candidates are seeking to exploit. Amateur football clubs, and the mindless football hooligans who follow them, have become the latest target of the election campaigns of both Tassos Papadopoulos and Ioannis Kasoulides. Don't get me wrong, if Omonoia was involved in some shape or form, Demetris Christofias would be the first man championing the purity of his beloved club.

Cyprus football has seen its fair share of idiocies, from swastikas to racist slogans to 'TRNC' flags raised to provoke the ire of more 'nationalistic' opponents. And amidst all this tumult the Republic of Cyprus' future president has endorsed a culture which, to an informed observer, highlights the problems embedded deep within a large proportion of the Greek Cypriot population. Football in Cyprus expresses the racist, xenophobic psyche which many who recognise it choose to ignore, and this pent-up restlessness wields its ugly head at inopportune moments such as last weekend. Well, it's just as well it happened before the election. At least now we know exactly what we are all voting for...

ACGTA Seminar

2008-02-06T23:59:00.001-08:00

The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) hosts the latest seminar organised by the Association for Cypriot, Greek and Turkish Affairs (ACGTA), entitled:

Cyprus: EU Law and the Turkish Cypriots by Alper Riza QC

Friday 8 February 2008 at 6.30 p.m.

London School of Economics
European Institute
Canada Blanch Room (J116), Cowdray House, 1st floor,
Portugal Street,
London WC2A 2AE

Unrecognised Diplomat?

2008-02-06T00:40:00.000-08:00

Carne Ross is the Independent Diplomat - an oxymoron if ever there was one. His book, Dispatches from an Unaccountable Elite, is a unique insight into the world of high-level diplomacy. His decision to take a stand against the British government's maniacal self-interest and its lack of transparency in the conduct of elite diplomacy is without doubt a commendable one. Below is Al-Jazeerah's profile of Ross and his organisation.

The organisation he now heads is indeed unique - a foreign policy consultancy whose job is to bring those who feel excluded from the inner circles of international diplomacy into the fold. What strikes a visitor of ID's website, and specifically the 'Clients' category, is that all of the organisation's clients have one thing in common - they are governments which, as yet, are not recognised by the international community. International politics of recognition are not straightforward; indeed, more often than not, those exceptional cases where recognition is not accorded to states and governments smack of power politics and state interest. The recent tug of war over the future status of the Serbian province of Kosovo is indicative of how self-determination, as a measure of statehood, no longer features heavily in the arguments for or against. The EU/US coalition is in the ascendancy in its latest battle against Russia.

Ross speaks of clear ethical criteria which define his work. ID only works with governments who are committed to democracy and the protection of human rights. The most recent addition to his list of clients is the 'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus', a regime established by a unilateral declaration of independence in 1983 by the Turkish Cypriot community of Cyprus. The de facto state was created in 1974 following a Turkish military intervention on the island. Turkey's occupation has persisted ever since. Human rights remains a sensitive issue in Cyprus. Both communities have their grievances - the Turkish Cypriots point to the abuse of power by the Greek Cypriots in the 1960's, as well as persecution by paramilitary groups, especially after 1963. Greek Cypriots claim that atrocities were committed by both communities, but that they bore the brunt of the forced migration in the aftermath of 1974, with approximately 165.000 Greek Cypriots becoming refugees in their own country. This is the broader picture. What one fails to notice however is that the Turkish Cypriot administration may not be the clean-cut representative of the people it claimed to protect. It has taken some brave voices by Turkish Cypriots to bring to light the true state of affairs in the 'TRNC' where basic human rights are encroached upon with alarming regularity. The Turkish military is still very much the 'elephant in the room', a position it is not likely to give up easily.

Carne Ross would do well to listen to these voices. 'Diplomacy is too closed a box'. The same could be said for Independent Diplomat. The lack of transparency of British diplomacy that Ross was so critical of in his book is in danger of enveloping his own initiative. While it would be foolish to publish all of its work online, the lack of explanatory detail of ID's work brings into question the motives which lie behind its choice of clients. Diplomacy is very much about 'us' and 'them', a clear distinction between those for whom I work and those for whom I don't. All conflicts are fundamentally about 'us' and 'them' - delicate situations such as the one in Cyprus dictates that all variables be carefully considered. Ross would do well to listen to those who do not represent the official governmental line; canvassing opinion from all sectors of society is what good diplomacy should be all about.

The importance of buzz-words

2008-02-05T08:50:00.000-08:00

Conflicts evolve. Of that there is no question. The internal dynamics, power shifts, and international circumstances surrounding conflicts worlwide are in a constant state of flux. But reading an article from today's edition of the Turkish online newspaper ZAMAN made me realise that the language employed to describe a conflict at any given moment could have an important effect on what direction it is likely to take next.

The Cyprus question, a conflict to which I pay special attention, is ready to enter a new phase in 2008. Indeed, billing the upcoming presidential elections in the Republic of Cyprus as the most crucial in the country’s recent history can hardly be considered an overstatement. The conflict, whose origins can be traced to the breakdown of the state in 1963, and whose mediation the UN has seen as its exclusive territory, has seen its fair share of intransigence from both communities. Most recently, President Tassos Papadopoulos has been widely criticised by members of his own negotiating team over his handling of major issues at the Burgenstock meeting in early 2004. The accusations have focused on the President’s apparent unwillingness to engage constructively in negotiations over the final Annan Plan draft, including a failure to present the Greek Cypriot ‘red lines’ to all the parties involved. Former UN Special Representative Alvaro de Soto has also spoken of Papadopoulos’ lack of enthusiasm during the final negotiations, pointing to his abstention at crucial moments. And of course the President’s emotional, televised appeal to Greek Cypriots on the eve of the referendum to reject the Plan only increased the international community’s suspicion of a pre-meditated, rejectionist stance.

While there certainly seems to be a case for Papadopoulos to answer for, what must be put into perspective is that in the decades preceeding Papadopoulos' presidency it was the Turkish Cypriot community, led by Rauf Denktash, who had provided the most significant obstacle to constructive talks over the island's future. As the years have rolled by however the international context, to which the conflict is very much a function of, have been accompanied by significant changes in internationally acceptable norms. While realist notions of state power and national interest still dominate much of our understanding of the international system, a greater emphasis on sub-state entities (e.g. communities or peoples) now take up an increasingly large portion of the political lexicon. Note how the rigid state-like definitions of the legally invalid 'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus' have been sidelined in favour of the 'isolated' Turkish Cypriot community. This is very much the tone of the recently endorsed Strategic Alliance signed between Great Britain and Turkey. Don't get me wrong, the international status of Turkish Cypriots has long been one of marginalisation, but the Greek Cypriots must not end up shouldering the entirety of the blame.

My point is not to discredit the importance of further expanding the vocabulary of international relations. On the contrary, what I believe is worth noting is that the language of international relations can itself have a major bearing on its subject matter. Reference to communities recalls memories of the inter-communal feuding which gripped Cyprus in 1960's, and unavoidably visions of 'enosis' (Union with Greece) and 'taksim' (Partition) dominate the history of that period. Enosis is dead and buried. But partition is now very much alive. And this brings me back to ZAMAN. I quote from the article - 'It is understood that in the long term, negotiated partition of the island appears to be the final solution.' The International Crisis Group's latest report on the Cyprus stalemate speaks of 'reversing the drift to partition.' A dangerous pattern appears to be developing.

The realities on the ground have changed; the international status of Greek and Turkish Cypriots have also changed considerably. Those who care most about resolving the conflict in a fair and equitable manner must take note of the language which is now deployed in describing the conflict. Buzz-words are usually an indication of recent trends; partition is very much part of that new reality.